Separating fact from fiction

Last year I blogged about the controversial Lost Tomb of Jesus which had generated a lot of bitter and heated arguments around the globe. Subsequently while everyone thought the issue had sunk like the great Titanic, it was resurrected in the recently concluded Talpiot Tomb Conference organised by Princeton Theological Seminary.

Experts appearing in this major conference to discuss the validity of the claims as publicised by the producers of Discovery Channel in a more academic manner, consisted not only of archeologists, but also theologians, statisticians, epigraphers, DNA forensic experts and patina specialists. Opinions differed greatly from highly unlikely to possible that this was the tomb belonging to the Jesus family. The documentary team felt vindicated. According to director/author Simcha Jacobovici, 'My work with James Cameron was the catalyst for an international symposium that has finally considered the evidence and is opening the door for further research. It's time that the world seriously considered that the Jesus family tomb may very well have been located'.

From the statistical point of view, everything seemed to be dependant on whether one of the inscriptions actually referred to Mary Magdalene. If this is so, the probability will greatly favour the claim. Andrey Feuerverger, Professor of Mathematics and Statistics from the University of Toronto revealed for the first time that his statistical model has now been peer-reviewed and accepted by the leading statistical journal Annals of Applied Statistics and will be published in their first issue of 2008 in February.

As I have also suggested in my earlier post, more patina tests need to be done on neighbouring ossuaries as a form of random sampling and this was the similar conclusion coming from patina experts.

This grand meeting of some highly intellectual debates experts of various disciplines (and perhaps we were told, some highly tensed encounters as well), provided an emotive highlight in the form of a frail lady coming up on stage to accept the Lifetime Achievement Award on behalf of her deceased husband who was the original excavator of the tomb:

The widow of the Israeli archeologist who led the excavation of a hugely controversial First-Century burial tomb in Jerusalem’s Talpiot neighborhood 28 years ago said on Wednesday that her late husband knew he had found the burial place of Jesus and was afraid the discovery would trigger a wave of anti-Semitism because of the apparent challenge to Christian beliefs.

Ruth Gat unleashed her archeological earthquake when accepting a lifetime achievement award on behalf of her late husband, Yosef Gat of the Department of Antiquities, at the conclusion of a four-day academic conference in Jerusalem, at which leading archaeologists, epigraphers, biblical experts, statisticians and other scholars gathered to evaluate “the Talpiot Tomb in context.”

A small-framed, frail-looking lady, Mrs. Gat told the scholars calmly that her husband knew he had found “the burial tomb of Jesus Christ,” and that he had “serious concerns and fears” over the consequences of his discovery. She noted that Yosef had been a child in Nazi-occupied Poland, and that with his bitter childhood memories still in mind, he had feared “a wave of anti-Semitism” might erupt as a result of the Talpiot find. She said she was relieved that the world had “changed for the better,” and that this feared reaction had not come to pass.

Speaking briefly to The Jerusalem Post after her address, Mrs. Gat said her husband had been “staggered” by the discovery, and that he had discussed it with her “at the kitchen table.”

Gat died soon after excavating the Talpiot tomb in 1980, and left only minimal notes of what had been found there. source

In conclusion, I echo the thoughts of Prof James Charlesworth, the co-organiser of the conference:

'the possible discovery of Christ's tomb will illicit mixed reactions among Christians. Most, he believes, will view it positively. The faith of some believers, he says, will be buoyed by historical proof that Christ, the son of Joseph and Mary, did exist. "I don't think it will undermine belief in the resurrection, only that Jesus rose as a spiritual body, not in the flesh." He adds: "Christianity is a strong religion, based on faith and experience, and I don't think that any discovery by archeologists will change that."'

Prof Charlesworth has been tasked to lead a team to reopen and reinvestigate the Talpiot Tomb.

There is none like You (part 2)

Continuing from the previous post, this is a photo of the facade of the tomb, with the 'Chevron' symbol on top, taken in 1980 by Jewish archaeologist Amos Kloner. Therefore, if anyone thinks that this whole site is a forgery, well, it is not. It is a closely supervised, authorised Israeli archaeological site except for a 'window period' between the beginning of the Jewish Sabbath and Sunday morning when, any of the treasures could have been stolen.

However, the verdict is out even before the documentary was shown. Most scholars have discredited the findings. The filmmakers were made to look unprofessional. Reminds me of my practice of evidence based medicine. Every now and then, someone will get into the spotlight by claiming that his medicine works on a certain disease without going through proper research trials. For most of us who are not able to watch the documentary just yet, here's a detailed account from a blog as the 'Lost Tomb of Jesus' show was televised live on that day.

This dramatic documentary is beginning to sound like an episode from the CSI. Being in the entertainment business, some commentators are already poking fun at the their colleagues. Larry King wonders if this might be the end of Easter bunny. Jon Stewart, the comedian host in the Daily Show, thinks if Our Father in Heaven has a grandson, he must be the most spoiled kid in town! Many people are clearly upset by the Discovery Channel although I don't think it will lead to any street demonstrations or mass killing but a TV evangelist in America is unable to hide his anger when he said, 'Hollywood is controlled by secular Jews who hate Christianity in general, and Catholicism in particular. I like children and family; they like abortion!'

This is even more controversial than the da Vinci Code (dah benci kut!) movie since James Cameron's assertion is that this is for real.

OK, let's go back to the findings. Of all the statistical, DNA forensics and patina testings, I would say that the patina test is the most interesting. The producers have added a 'dramatic' twist to the show by saying that the tenth missing ossuary actually belonged to the 'James, son of Joseph, brother of Jesus' ossuary (pictured below) discovered earlier. The patina 'fingerprinting' test, which is a relatively new technique, scans samples on stone surfaces, in this case samples from ossuaries taken at random from a dozen tombs from various locations in the Jerusalem area, with an electron microscope to reveal a chemical spectrum of essential elements such as magnesium, aluminum, phosphorus, potassium, titanium and iron. The initial results indicated that the chemical spectrum of the James ossuary strongly “echoed” those of the Talpiot wall surfaces and its ossuaries. I wonder whether there is a panel of physicists to review this.



The hypothesis that the James ossuary belongs to the Talpiot tomb has already been discounted by most scholars as the dimensions of the missing ossuary is different from the one documented (65 x 25 x 30 in the Jesus ossuary vs 57.5 x 25 x 30 in the James ossuary) and it is not plain as noted in the Talpiot excavation. However, James Tabor in his blog, has pointed out that the initial excavation findings reveal only a very faint rosette pattern which is due to accumulation of earth which is not initially brushed off yet. Furthermore, he gave an example of certain ossuaries (pictured below), which is quite elaborately decorated and not 'plain' as in the James ossuary.


However, the statistical findings that this is a unique cluster of names not to be found elsewhere fail to convince me. The odds can be 1 in 100, 1 in 600 or 1 in 1000 or whatever. The findings were only based on certain assumptions in the calculation done by Andrey Feuerverger from the University of Toronto. For example, it is assumed by the producers that, Mariamme e Mara refers to Mary Magdalene. This will markedly affect the calculations. If this assumption is wrong, I'm sorry to say, the whole equation will collapse like a house of cards.

Speaking from everyday experience, what are the chances of meeting your friend at a train station in London? Have you ever found a word you require by the first flip of a dictionary? (Well I have!). What's the probability of seeing 3 patients with the same name on the same day in a clinic? I've actually seen them - their names are very common here, let's say as common as Tan Ah Chong. This is just my personal testimony.

What’s the probability of the Jesus family having a tomb in Jerusalem when it should most likely be in Nazareth, his birthplace? – the answer is we don’t have the statistical figures to work on, as we are looking from a purely historical and cultural point of view. Therefore, there is not going to be an absolute answer to this whole issue as far as statistics is concerned and people are going to argue till the cows come home. Statisticians are only there for window dressing and to give a rough estimate.

The DNA test is also unconvincing although it is not the fault of the producers (they could not find bone fragments from other ossuaries. The bones were all buried, on discovery, according to Jewish law). The experts are only able to extract mitochondrial DNA, and not the nucleus, and it is found that the ones in the Jesus and Mariamme ossuaries are not related. The producers are quick to jump in and say that it may probably mean that Jesus and Mary Magdalene were married and they had a son named Judas. This is predetermined mindset and it has angered many people. I hope they would retract their assumption to defuse the widespread furore. It reminds me of Dato' Tan Chin Nam's (Tan and Tan Development magnate) book title named 'Never Say I Assume!'

In conclusion, I'm more interested in the intellectual debate that will prevail, rather than assumptions and wild accusations from both sides.

Clearly, an independent team needs to be sent there to verify or discount the patina test. They need to take more samples from other ossuaries in the Talpiot area. This patina test is quite confusing – and as most of us have not heard of this technology before, unlike carbon dating. The producers have said that it is a match but how good a match? It is hoped that more random sampling will be done, and hopefully there will be more refined patina testing machines to clear the issue for the sake of analytical minded people like me! The tomb, itself, which has been sealed by the Israeli authority needs to be reopened and reexamined. More authoritative epigraphical work needs to be done and the final consensus should be made known.

Meanwhile, back in the ICU, the cardiac monitor was showing ventricular fibrillation now. Life was slowly sapping out of the baby. I remember holding Merilynn a few days before she collapsed. She was enjoying the escalator ride up and down at the hospital where she was admitted. At a certain moment, she seemed to be pointing to the large window towards the sky for a very long time. Perhaps there is light at the end of the tunnel after all!

There is none like You

There is none like You
No one else can touch my heart like You do
I could search for all eternity long
And find, there is none like You

Your mercy flows from a river wide
Healing comes from Your hands
Suffering children are safe in Your arms
There is none like You

As part of a church congregation, I always enjoy singing the above worship song. It has never failed to lift up my mood, which has been sinking like a 'titanic' for the past week or so.

A one and a half year old child named Merilynn Lim (not her real name) was admitted to the ICU after contracting high fever due to viral infection. It has led to a cascade of system failure. The virus is so virulent that it tipped her into total heart failure (global cardiomyopathy). Since birth, Merilynn has this muscular weakness known as hypotonia, which was detected when she was unable to sit without support by age 8 months. Since then, the parents have brought her to HUKM for weekly physiotherapy as part of early intervention program. Merilynn had been making slow but good progress. However, it was also detected that she had a borderline enlarged heart but nothing much was made out of it. She easily succumbed to episodes of fever which may sometimes take a few weeks to clear. She has also been in and out of hospital, whether it is for her high persistent fever or for investigations into her problem. A metabolic screening was finally done and mitochondrial disease was suspected. As her condition deteriorated, her parents refused to let her undergo a muscle biopsy which would be the definative test. I could emphatise with them. You wouldn't want to let your child undergo further trauma and be put under general anaesthesia in case her body could not take it.

For the past eighteen months, Merilynn's life was a long suffering one. The cardiac monitor in the paediatric ICU room was displaying ventricular irregularities. I was holding her hand, which had turned clammy and her pulse was barely palpable. I noticed too that her urine output was very low. The poor child has been intubated and sedated......

In the meantime, another event is taking place, which has sparked off a debate as to the history and the very foundation of Christianity. Somewhere in the outskirts of old Jerusalem, below an apartment in a place called Talpiot, the Discovery Channel crew has rediscovered the significance of a first century family tomb, excavated in 1980, which they believed, belongs to Jesus' family. In this tomb, there are inscriptions on the ossuaries which, the team revealed, after consulting an interdisciplinary team of experts, seemingly resemble a cluster of names belonging to the family, as noted in the Bible. Those names, if the epigraphers have got it right as as follows,

Jesus, son of Joseph

Maria (in simple form, Mary)

Yose

Mariamme e Mara

Judah, son of Jesus

Matthew

Six out of ten of the ossuary boxes have the inscriptions, which is higher than usual because most ossuaries discovered in the first century tombs have only 20% of identifying inscriptions. The names themselves have sparked controversy. Mariamme has been identified as Mary Magdelene, a follower of Jesus, and her name was the only one inscribed in Greek, as she was known to have preached in that language (others were in Hebrew or Aramaic). Yose is the nickname found in the Gospels, who was Jesus' brother, named Joseph. Though the name Joseph is common in that population, Yose is an extremely rare name to discover. There has only been one other ossuary discovered with the words 'Jesus, son of Joseph', and that too was not well documented. Therefore, even though, the names Joseph and Jesus were common among early Jews, 'Jesus, son of Joseph' is another rare finding. Jesus never had a son. He is divine and there is absolutely no historical record. This discovery of 'Judah, son of Jesus' is the most amazing of them all!

The team has gone one step ahead of the academia by publishing their findings to the general viewers, estimated to be over a billion. Since the release of the documentary which has yet to be shown here, more than a million websites have been generated on this lively topic. Of course, the scholars and experts have long known about the cluster of names (since 1980) but no one has made anything out of it. This is an account of just one of the experts.

In the beginning, the public and most of the experts have accused the filmmaking 'fat cats' of making money out of this expedition. The team of decoders, headed by James Cameron, director of Titanic and True Lies and Simcha Jacobovici (producer of the award winning documentary The Exodus Decoded) have consulted the relevant experts in epigraphy, statistics, DNA forensics etc. They are aided by a Dr James Tabor, a biblical scholar and author of The Jesus Dynasty.

The big question of this Indiana Jones style expedition, is - Is this turning out to be a perfect storm, a storm in a teacup or a piece of news that will soon be ignored and forgotten? What most of the people around the world have been reading, including myself, are stories or evidence as produced directly from the team.

I wonder if the church leaders have been following the latest developments. What is their reaction and have they revealed their thoughts to the congregation? These are testing times for the people of the faith.

(To be continued)